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23 October 2014

The Polling Does Not Match Georgia's Early Voting Numbers

This week, two polls were released measuring the level of support Democrat Jason Carter and Republican Nathan Deal have in their respective gubernatorial campaigns.

Insider Advantage says the race is a tie. SurveyUSA says Deal leads Carter by two points.

The numbers; the actual early voting numbers say something totally different.

The latest data from Georgia's Secretary of State's office says 293,818 people have cast early ballots.

According to analysis from the United States Election Project, the current demographic breakdown of Georgia's early voters is as follows:

63% White;

28% Black;

0.4% Hispanic;

0.8% Other; and

8.0% Unknown.

That equates to 185,105 white voters; 82,269 black voters; 1,175 Hispanic voters; 2,351 other voters; and 23,505 unknown voters. The numbers were rounded.

It is commonly accepted that in 2010, Gov. Deal received 77% of the white vote. That is 142,531 early votes in 2014.

The Democratic nominee in 2010 received 23% of the white vote, or 42,574.

It is also commonly accepted that blacks vote between ninety and ninety-five percent for the Democratic nominee. We'll low ball that, and say state Senator Jason Carter gets 95%. That is 78,156, leaving Nathan Deal with 4,113.

So with just the black vote and the white vote, Nathan Deal has 146,644 (54.8%) early votes. Jason Carter has 120,730 (45.2%).

It is highly unlikely that Democrat Jason Carter wins every last one of the 26,444 remaining votes. If Carter wins 95% or 25,122, he's still stuck at 49.6%.

It is possible though that people are switching their voters from Deal to Carter. Newly registered voters could swing the pendulum to Carter as well. But as things stand today, Governor Deal is looking pretty good in his bid for a second term.