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30 January 2012

Georgia Looking to be the Site of Newt's Last Stand

Notwithstanding statements by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich that he's remaining in the Republican presidential primary campaign until the GOP National Convention, Georgia's March 6th delegate contest is looking increasingly like it will be the site of Newt's last stand.

Political commentator and Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson posted on his Facebook page that, "Romney may make a play for Georgia to drive a stake thru Newt and humiliate him."

Anecdotal evidence suggests this may be true.

The Romney campaign quietly announced a list of supporters January 20th, many of whom are elected officials hailing from Newt's old congressional district. As the Georgia primary draws near, it's expected that many of these elected officials will promote Romney in former Gingrich territory and elsewhere across the state.

Then there's the Gingrich campaign memo obtained by The Daily Caller. The memo heavily emphasizes Georgia and its 76 delegates at stake on March 6th.

The memo, from National Political Director Martin Baker, notes Romney’s lack of conservative grassroots support, and stresses that Romney currently has just 33 of the 1144 needed (Gingrich has 25 of 1144).

More than 20 percent of the available delegates (467) will be awarded on Super Tuesday, and the memo notes that, one of the Super Tuesday states is Georgia, with 76 delegates at stake. To put that in perspective, “even if Romney wins Florida on Tuesday, he will only have 83 total delegates; Newt’s home state could effectively cancel out his entire delegate count to date.”

Lewis, Matt (2012-1-30). Gingrich memo downplays Florida; looks ahead to Super Tuesday. Daily Caller. Retrieved on 2012-1-30.

Should Romney win Tuesday's Florida primary, he'll be looking for a knock out blow in Georgia March 6th. If Gingrich loses Florida, then he'll be looking to regain footing on what he believes is friendly ground; the state of Georgia.

A Florida loss by Newt will start the calls on him to end his presidential campaign. If Gingrich goes on to lose Georgia, the pressure on him to drop out will become insurmountable and, I think, the money will dry up.

Georgia is the last stand for Newt Gingrich. Newt knows this, he just isn't ready to admit it publicly.