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11 October 2010

Insider Advantage Poll: Deal - 49%, Barnes - 41%, Monds - 3%, Undecided - 7%

Here's the latest Insider Advantage Georgia poll on the 2010 gubernatorial race:

In the race for governor, Nathan Deal leads former Gov. Roy Barnes by eight points – 49 percent to 41 percent. The Libertarian has dropped to 3 percent, and 7 percent are undecided.

Nathan Deal continues to enjoy a reasonably strong lead over Roy Barnes. However, as I indicated last week, the poll does show improvement from our last poll among independent voters. The problem for Barnes is that independent voters are now making up their minds and they have reached nearly 50 percent for Deal with only 10 percent undecided and Barnes at 36 percent. For Barnes to have a chance to win this race or force a runoff, the Libertarian must hold to at least 3 percent and Barnes must improve his numbers among independents and male voters, where he is now trailing 56 percent to 34 percent.( Barnes leads among female voters 46 percent to 43 percent.) This explains why we have seen so many commercials recently in which Roy Barnes is surrounded primarily by white males in delivering his message. Republicans should be careful to not be overly confident, in that any movement among male voters in Barnes’ direction would likely also be a shift in independent voters, making the race much closer. However, the results of the other two races tell us something about the mood of Georgians with regard to Republican nominees versus Democrats in this very tough year for Democratic candidates.

Georgia: Deal, Cagle, Olens all enjoy substantial lead in latest IA poll. Southern Political Report. Retrieved on 2010-10-11.

Here's an unfiltered thought on this election season:

Only Zell Miller and Tommy Irvin could win a statewide election as a Democrat in Georgia this year.