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13 October 2010

FiveThirtyEight.com: 13% Chance of the Georgia GOP Losing Governor's Mansion

FiveThirtyEight.com founder Nate Silver, the statistician who correctly predicted the election results in 49 out of 50 states two years ago, is out with his updated forecast for Georgia's gubernatorial election.

For the first time since early September, Republican Nathan Deal is seeing his chances of becoming the state's 82nd governor in the 80s. Based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment, Silver says the likelihood of a Deal victory is 86.7%.

Writes Silver:

. . .in Georgia, a poll conducted three weeks ago to show a tied race now looks increasingly like an outlier, as several subsequent surveys have shown the Republican, Nathan Deal, with a steady-seeming lead of 6-to-9 points.

Silver, Nate (2010-10-12). Modest Gains for Democrats in Gubernatorial Forecast. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved on 2010-10-13.


Based on polling and demographic data, Silver predicts Deal will beat Barnes 52.2% to 45.5% on November 2nd.