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14 September 2010

Historical Trends Suggest Black Voters Won't Make Up More Than 24% of the 2010 Georgia Electorate

With Democrats saying the polling method used by SurveyUSA is flawed, particularly that the percentage of black voters in the Georgia electorate is "way too low," I thought it would be good to take a look at the black percentage of Georgia's electorate over the past twelve years.

Below is a table of data I put together using numbers from the Georgia Secretary of State Elections Division:

Year
Number of Ballots
Cast
Number of African-
American Ballots Cast
African-American Percentage
of the Electorate
2008

3,934,388

1,182,509

30.06%

2006

2,134,908

513,699

24.06%

2004

3,285,140

834,331

25.40%

2002

2,029,216

458,640

22.60%

2000

2,655,325

615,723

23.19%

1998

1,817,615

415,847

22.88%

1996

2,341,821

497,086

21.23%


Using the figures in the table above, the average percentage of black voters in the Georgia electorate comes out to 24.2%. That is just 1.2% lower than the 23% of blacks SurveyUSA predicts will make up the 2010 electorate here in the Peach State.

The 30% in 2008 can be credited to the so-called Obama effect. Obama and his historic candidacy drove nearly 1.2 million blacks to the polls. Obama isn't on the ballot this year and as a result, we're going to see that 30% drop back down to 24% at best.

With blacks making up 24% of Georgia's electorate, Roy Barnes or any other Democrat running statewide must heavily court those conservative white voters who need a reason to go against their natural instinct to cast ballots for candidates with a "R" by their name.