Earlier this week, SurveyUSA released a poll on five statewide races appearing on the Georgia ballot this November.
Screwing up the composition of likely voters, the way SurveyUSA has with the number of male and female voters in Georgia, makes it hard to give credence to the poll in its entirety.
Republicans are crowing because the survey's results show their candidates with wide leads over the Democrats [Geraghty, Jim (2010-9-13). GOP in Position to Sweep Georgia’s Statewide Offices. National Review. Retrieved on 2010-9-15.]. Democrats are questioning the accuracy of the poll, and consider the numbers flawed [Morton, Amy (2010-9-13). Spin Game. Blog for Democracy. Retrieved on 2010-9-15.].
Yesterday, using numbers provided by the Secretary of State Elections Division, I detailed the black composition of Georgia's electorate over the past twelve years. Blacks, from 1996 to 2008, have averaged 24.2% of the state's electorate. SurveyUSA, in its crosstabs, pegged the black composition of likely voters at 23%.
For male voters and female voters, the numbers from SurveyUSA suggest that men will outnumber women at the ballot box by eight points -- 54% to 46%. However, historical trends suggest the exact opposite.
| Year | Cast | of the Electorate | |
| 2008 | 3,934,388 | 2,149,338 | 54.63% |
| 2006 | 2,134,908 | 1,140,641 | 53.43% |
| 2004 | 3,285,140 | 1,820,264 | 55.41% |
| 2002 | 2,029,216 | 1,097,543 | 54.09% |
| 2000 | 2,655,325 | 1,471,827 | 55.43% |
| 1998 | 1,817,615 | 987,603 | 54.34% |
| 1996 | 2,341,821 | 1,273,370 | 54.38% |
| Year | Cast | of the Electorate | |
| 2008 | 3,934,388 | 1,671,836 | 42.49% |
| 2006 | 2,134,908 | 965,891 | 45.24% |
| 2004 | 3,285,140 | 1,430,252 | 43.54% |
| 2002 | 2,029,216 | 931,673 | 45.91% |
| 2000 | 2,655,325 | 1,183,498 | 44.57% |
| 1998 | 1,817,615 | 829,718 | 45.65% |
| 1996 | 2,341,821 | 1,038,699 | 44.35% |
From 1996 to 2008, female voters have outnumbered male voters on an average of 54.53% to 44.54%. The SurveyUSA poll says that among women voters, Barnes and Deal are tied at 46% a piece. Among male voters, Deal holds a wide lead over Barnes, 52% to 32%.
The Democrats may be right that the SurveyUSA poll may be a bit off-kilter.
Screwing up the composition of likely voters, the way SurveyUSA has with the number of male and female voters in Georgia, makes it hard to give credence to the poll in its entirety.