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29 September 2010

538 Forecast Increases Likelihood of Deal Victory to 77.6%

With a new poll comes a new update to the FiveThirtyEight forecast of Georgia's 2010 gubernatorial contest.

The Insider Advantage/WSB-TV poll that showed Republican Nathan Deal increasing his lead over Democrat Roy Barnes to eight points also raised the likelihood of a Georgia GOP victory in November.

Nate Silver's model now has Deal's chances of victory at 77.6 percent. That's a three point bump from the 74.9 percent chance Deal had in Silver's September 21st forecast.

However, Silver says, "This race would benefit from some more polling."