Georgia Unfiltered

Search This Site

03 November 2008

Based On Polls & Early Votes, Obama Holds Slim Georgia Lead

With Georgia's 45-day early voting period now at a close, more than 2 million ballots were cast representing 36% of the Peach State's 5.5 million registered voters.

Using the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released October 31st, we can project where both candidates stand with less than a day left until Election Day.

In the poll, McCain was clinging to a 3-point lead over Obama, 47% to 44% with 3% going to other candidates and 6% undecided. The demographic breakdown showed the following:

McCain
Obama
Other
Undecided
White
69%
22%
5%
4%
Black
4%
91%
-
5%
Hispanic
8%
66%
-
26%
Other
8%
68%
-
24%

After applying the percentage of the candidate's support in each demographic group to the number of early votes cast, we see that Barack Obama gets 48.2%; John McCain gets 43.4%; Bob Barr gets 3% leaving 5.3% undecided.

In other words, if the ballots from early voting were counted today, Barack Obama would hold a lead of about 97,000 votes with 107,288 additional votes undecided.

Below is the breakdown of votes each candidate might have received during Georgia's early voting period using the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll:

McCain:

69% of the White vote - 841,880

4% of the Black vote - 28,208

8% of the Hispanic vote - 1,193

8% of Other
(including Native Americans and Asian/Pacific Islanders) - 6,448

Total - 877,729 or 43.4%

Obama:

22% of the White vote - 268,426

91% of the Black vote - 641,735

66% of the Hispanic vote - 9,843

68% of Other
(including Native Americans and Asian/Pacific Islanders) - 54,812

Total - 974,816 or 48.2%

Other Candidates (including Bob Barr):

5% of the White vote - 61,006

0% of the Black vote - 0

0% of the Hispanic vote - 0

0% of Other
(including Native Americans and Asian/Pacific Islanders) - 0

Total - 61,006 or 3.0%

Undecided:

4% Undecided Whites - 48,805

5% Undecided Blacks - 35,260

26% Undecided Hispanics - 3,878

24% Undecided Other
(including Native Americans and Asian/Pacific Islanders) - 19,345

Total - 107,288 or 5.3%