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29 October 2008

New Poll Shows Tight Race Between Marshall & Goddard

Yesterday, the folks at Tondee's Tavern pointed to an internal poll conducted by the Mellman Group for Democratic Congressman Jim Marshall as reasons to declare that "Marshall looks to be in fine shape" [Source: Tondee's Tavern, "Marshall Up 17 Points in Internal Poll", October 28, 2008].

The poll showed Jim Marshall leading his Republican opponent, Rick Goddard by double digits. However, a new poll conducted by SurveyUSA seems to contradict the internal numbers compiled by the Marshall campaign.

A poll commissioned by Roll Call, a Washington, D.C., newspaper that covers Congress, shows U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall leading Republican challenger Rick Goddard 49 to 45 percent in the 8th District House race.

Goddard’s campaign said the numbers reflect what they have been seeing on the ground — a tight race — but they would not discuss specifics of their own internal polling."
[Source: Macon Telegraph, "Weekend poll suggests 8th District contest between Marshall, Goddard is close", October 29, 2008]

The pollsters at SurveyUSA say that incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall edges Republican challenger Rick Goddard if black voters turn out as expected.

If blacks make up 31% of the district's electorate, as reflected here, Marshall holds off Goddard, 49% to 45%. If black turnout is lower, the contest is closer. If black turnout is higher, Marshall may outperform these numbers. Goddard leads 2:1 among the district's white voters. Marshall leads 9:1 among the district's black voters. [Source: SurveyUSA, "Obama's Coattails Will Determine Democrat Marshall's Margin in Georgia's 8th Congressional District", October 27, 2008]